A look at the graph below illustrates how demand can fluctuate throughout the year. The two lines track demand in each direction on a sample route. Directional patterns are clearly evident. Extremely high spikes and low valleys are indications of special events which could be holidays, conventions, or even bad weather or major events in the news.
Creating a graph like this is very simple if you have the data of final bookings for each week in a year. Deciding what is classified as "Peak" travel versus "Low Season" travel can be clearly defined based on the vertical axis demand level. Corresponding week numbers and their actual dates can help you to setup your seasonal settings in the revenue management system.
Even if you don't have a revenue management system, this analysis can clearly assist you in protecting for high yield demand in "Peak" periods, and ensuring discount inventory is open in "Low Season periods.
I invite comments and discussion on how you define your seasonality and special events, and whether you find this important in the calibration of your demand forecasts.
Apart from all the traditional ways we all use and know, I think we can use the help of our big brother "Google.
ReplyDeleteIf you check google calendar there are standard calendars for the holidays of many countries. Could you use this tool in order to make special offers for the specific markets you are trying to reach?
The idea is interesting of using the demand patterns of each direction as a proxy to determine if you may have missed something. Or perhaps you are not aware of some special event happening.
ReplyDeleteThe Google standard calendars will only give you standard holidays. It does not contain special events such as conventions, hurricanes super bowl, etc.
Your doomed to fail if you only track weekly. LCC's track everything, everywhere daily. Past future, overlaying forecasts, earmarking events.
ReplyDelete